Report of the national intelligence council s 2020 project based on consultations with nongovernmental experts around the world december 2004 to obtain a copy of this publication, please contact. Publicly available intelligence documents listed below are samples of real and publicly available intelligence documents from a variety of agencies and sources. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 1520 years. Alternative worlds national intelligence council dec 2012 global trends 2030. Overview of the national intelligence council report on. The atlantic council s brent scowcroft center on international security will host a twoday conference launching the us national intelligence council s nic global trends 2030. Alternative worlds in 2030 by the national intelligence council, shaping the future of global food systems by 2030 by the world economic forum, and the evolving internet in 2025 conducted by cisco and the global business network national intelligence council 2012. The national intelligence council has issued global trends 2030. Every four years since 1997, the national intelligence council the center for midterm and longterm strategic thinking in the us intelligence communityhas prepared a global trends report for the president of the united states. Us grand strategy options einternational relations.
Escalate to deescalate proceedings february 2017 vol. Alternative worlds, the fifth installment of a series that aims to provide a framework for thinking about future policy planning. In 1950, twentynine percent of the worlds population lived in urban areas. A publication of the national intelligence council by national intelligence council 20151204 on. Atlantic council brent scowcroft center on international security issuebrief roxanne cabral is a foreign service officer at the us department of state and the 202014 state department senior fellow at the atlantic council. More recently, after retiring and moving to the atlantic council, i partnered again. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence council s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. Jun, 20 indeed, the national intelligence council global trends 2030 report believes there will be a diffusion of power and that there will in fact be no hegemonic power in 2030.
Alternative worlds december 12, 2012 this report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 1520 years. The national intelligence council nic is the center for midterm and longterm strategic thinking within the united states intelligence community ic. United states national intelligence council us nic. Burrows, counselor to the national intelligence council, discusses the global trends 2030. Risks and opportunities for latin america global trends 2030. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series. Dec 10, 2012 instead, the national intelligence council paints the picture of a world in which the u. As with the nics previous global trends reports, we do not seek to predict the futurewhich would be an impossible featbut instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their. What fate for liberal order in a postwestern world. Every four years since 1997, the national intelligence council has published an unclassified strategic assessment of how key trends and uncertainties might shape the world over the next 20 years to help senior us leaders think and plan for the longer term. Combat in urban areas, by maj ron hernandez, 43 pages.
Nevertheless, the report also states strategy that. The report is timed to be especially relevant for the. Take the time to look over the fifth installment in the national intelligence council s nic series of reports aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future entitled global trends 2030. Alternative worlds free ebook download as pdf file. National intelligence council he served as deputy national intelligence officer for science and technology. Richard cincotta richard cincotta is the demographerinresidence at the stimson center in washington, dc, a consultant on political demography at the woodrow wilson centers environmental change and security project, and a contributor to the national intelligence councils strategic foresight efforts. Alternative worlds by national intelligence council. The national intelligence council nic, composed of some 18 senior analysts and national security policy experts, provides the u. At the end of 2012, the us national intelligence council nic released global trends 2030. Nic members are appointed by the director of national intelligence and routinely support his office and the national security council. Global trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. The report released this month, global trends 2030.
Alternative worlds report released december 10, 2012 by the national intelligence council. While i was the counselor at the us national intelligence council 200320 responsible for producing three editions of the highly rated global trends report,1 the pardee center was critical for the modeling of those trends. Issues and options for congress congressional research service summary the national intelligence council nic, composed of some 15 senior analysts and national security policy experts, provides the us intelligence communitys best judgments on crucial international issues. Alternative worlds, released in december 2012, identifies several mega trends and game changers that will shape future world scenarios.
Global urbanization involves billions of people on every inhabited continent half the world s. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence council s series. Peter engelke is a senior fellow at the atlantic councils strategic foresight initiative. Burrows, counselor to the national intelligence council, discusses the choice of alternate worlds as the subtitle for gt 2030. Dec 10, 2012 the atlantic councils brent scowcroft center on international security will host a twoday conference launching the us national intelligence councils nic global trends 2030. Download it once and read it on your kindle device, pc, phones or tablets. Alternative worlds report is the fifth installment in the national intelligence council s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. Le menu individual empowerment majority of world s population wont be impoverished. C director of national intelligence, december 2012.
Empirical data elucidates that the worlds population is aggregating in cities at an alarming rate. Alternative worlds, focuses on four megatrends, six game changers and four possible worlds that could result. As with previous editions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during. This report is the intelligence communitys best assessment of critical drivers and global scenarios over the. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading global trends 2030. National intelligence council presents the incoming president with an assessment of global trends.
Formerly a senior fellow at cias sherman kent school for intelligence analysis, he has held management positions in both cias directorates of intelligence now analysis and operations. A condensed version of the report is also available 1. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global. Report of the national intelligence councils 2020 project open pdf 6 mb mapping the global future. Alternative worlds, which the national intelligence council published in december of 2012, addressed climate change as part of its megatrend discussion on food, water, and energy. The following report was released december 10, 2012 by the national intelligence council a condensed version of the report is also available 1. Professionalizing intelligence analysis produced by the berkeley electronic press, 2015. Today, he fears what is coming next and many of his rationales are compelling. National intelligence council releases global trends 2030. A publication of the national intelligence cou ncil. Index includes population, gdp, military spending, technology, health, education, and governance. Individual empowerment majority of world s population wont be impoverished.
Individual empowerment will accelerate substantially during the next 1520 years owing to poverty. Report of the national intelligence councils 2020 project is the third unclassified report prepared by the national intelligence council nic in recent years that takes a longterm view of the future. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. The following report was released december 10, 2012 by the national intelligence council. The goal of the seminar is to explore the interconnections between strategic foresight and. As with previous editions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by. It leads the ics effort to produce national intelligence estimates and other documents. Dec 11, 2012 we are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures, writes the chairman of the national intelligence council nic christopher kojm in the councils latest forwardlooking quadrennial report, global trends 2030. This important report, global trends 2030 alternative worlds, released in 2012 by the u. Alternative worlds, released in december 2012, identifies several mega trends and game changers that will shape future world. Government printing office gpo, superintendent of documents, po box 391954. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. Alternative worlds kindle edition by national intelligence council. Formerly a senior fellow at cias sherman kent school for intelligence analysis.
Le menu office of the director of national intelligence national intelligence council starters main courses dessert charts. Alternative worlds by national intelligence council 20121110 national intelligence council. Alternative worlds open pdf 0 b this report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 1520 years. Park universitycontinuing education department intelligence. National intelligence council report, nuclear ambitions in the united states and russia over the last 20 years have evolved in opposite directions. Preparing governments for long term threats and complex. The global trends 2030 report was released at an atlantic council conference in december 2012. Reducing the role of nuclear weapons in security strategy is a u.
More recently, after retiring and moving to the atlantic council, i. These briefs represent the kind of work intelligence analysts do on a daily basis and should help familiarize students with the day to day life of an analyst. It describes the megatrends, gamechangers, and four potential worlds that we will likely face. Preparing governments for longterm threats and complex challenges this issues paper was drafted to support discussions amongst experts at the oecd high level risk policy seminar on the 23rd of september 2016, in paris. It supports and reports to the director of national intelligence. National intelligence council the national intelligence council nic is best known as the organization that produces national intelligence estimates, which are intelligence communitywide forecasts of issues and challenges facing the security of the united states. Alternative worlds the national intelligence council has released their fifth installment 10 december 2012 in a series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about potential global trajectories in the next fifteen to twenty years. Alternative worlds, intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 1520 years. The highlevel conference will convene more than 150 participants from the. Alternative worlds report and exploring its consequences for us strategy moving forward.
1174 714 602 809 1466 582 295 217 1322 434 27 353 543 165 25 153 391 1515 517 451 882 883 922 130 1428 437 1405 883 751 589